Murihiku Southland Climate Change Impact Assessment report released
An updated and expanded climate impact assessment for Murihiku Southland will help the region plan and prepare for climate risks and opportunities now and in the future.
Environment Southland Deputy Chair and Regional Climate Change Working Group (RCCWG) co-chair Phil Morrison said the report that was released today (15 April) would be a key tool for continuing community engagement helping people understand how the range of climate impacts might affect them.
It provides crucial information to inform planning, infrastructure investment, and risk management decisions across Murihiku Southland, he said.
Warmer, wetter weather with fewer frosts and increasing flood risk are predicted for the region. There could also be increases in the frequency, size and duration of severe weather events, including more unprecedented events.
“The trajectory and direction of travel is pretty clear. We’re moving from the climate we’ve known to one that’s more challenging,” Phil Morrison said.
“The information and modelling this report contains will be critical to everyone in the region being able to make sound decisions, be as prepared as possible, and adapt where needed,” he said.
Flood management was becoming increasingly important, water supply would be more variable and management of it would be crucial, long-term planning (including infrastructure) would be vital especially in coastal communities, and farming systems would need to evolve, he said.
Risks and opportunities across infrastructure needs, agriculture, tourism, forestry and fishing/aquaculture and renewable energy are considered.
The models can be used in the spatial planning process and to test adaptation scenarios.
The report focuses on two of the three scenarios – the ‘middle of the road’ business as usual scenario, and the ‘rocky road’ scenario of a more fragmented world.
It has been prepared by Earth Sciences NZ and provides updated and expanded modelling on the first edition of the report, published in 2018. Broadly speaking, the 2026 report backs up the 2018 report while providing far more detailed modelling of what our future climate is likely to be like, Cr Morrison said.
“This means we know where we stand, and we can feel more confident about planning for future needs.”
The changes will have implications not only for Southland, but New Zealand's climate and weather systems, for freshwater availability and for our communities' exposure to hazards, he said.
Environment Southland is working with regional partners on a response to our changing climate. The Murihiku Southland Regional Climate Change strategy was developed, publicly consulted on and adopted in 2024, followed by the Regional Framework for Actionin 2025 to translate the strategy into action. This report is one of the initial outputs of the Framework for Action.
The framework development included the views of more than 350 people and organisations who contributed their thoughts and opinions on how our region’s changing climate is affecting them, what actions they’re taking, and what more councils could do to support climate action.
Work towards a regional climate action plan is a focus for the RCCWG this year.
The full climate impact assessment report can be found here.
